When Will Home Prices Drop in Bend?

I think the short answer is “not any time soon.” The continuing shortage of available inventory combined with the seemingly insatiable demand (“everyone wants to live in Bend!”) will surely keep things rolling for awhile at least.

Still there are rumblings, and a couple of recent articles that portend an outcome different than mine. Believe them or not; they make for some interesting (if you’re into that kind of thing) reading. The first, with a catchy title  (“Signs of a Housing Bubble Are Brewing”), appeared in CNN Business. The second, Falling Home Prices? It’s Only Likely in These 13 Markets, appeared in Fortune, included a map, and actually mentioned our beloved Bend as one of the lucky 13.

Food for thought . . . but, certainly not as entertaining as this newsletter!

March 2022

When all was said and done, not a bad month for Bend real estate. We saw the purchase of 201 homes (single family residential on less than an acre), up substantially from from earlier months. The median price just refused to quit; it quietly set another scorching all-time high (cue the music!) at $775,000.

As for inventory? Well, there is none . . . just .4 months worth; or in layman’s terms, about 12 days.

And affordability? Ha! In March, 40 homes (a hair less than 20%) sold for more than a million dollars.

Luxury Bend . . . $3,000,000

Any reader knows that I have nothing against Tetherow, but, I have to admit that it’s nice to see other communities represented. This month belonged to Shevlin Commons . . . in fact, three of the four most expensive sales came from that neighborhood.

With a backdrop of Shevlin Park and then a  remarkable Cascade panorama, this 3 bedroom, 4 bath, 4152 square home featured an open floor plan and a wall of windows to accentuate the 180 degree view.

Granite countertops, pecan wood flooring, vertical grain fir doors, and well-stocked wet bars on each floor helped to complete the stunning picture.

Interestingly, but not really unusual in this price point, the home lingered on the market for 121 days before closing at almost $300,000 below list (at $723/square foot).

Bend’s Median . . . $775,000

They said it couldn’t be done; but, here we are at $775,000!

It seems that often times the median priced Bend home sort of sums up the past couple of years’ market in a nutshell. This one is interesting. It sold just two years ago (February of 2020) for  $454,600. In March, it went pending in just two days, and closed at $86,000 over list ($388 per foot). A rather tidy little profit; my, how things have changed!

The house offered four bedrooms, two baths, and 1996 square feet. It bordered the Crown Villa RV Resort.

A monthly feature . . . the median prices on each side of town. When will we hit one million on the west side?

East side     $655,000

West side    $975,000

Bargain Bend . . . $387,000

Perhaps just a bit of hyperbole; let the adverbs flow–“hard-to-find half acre . . . fully fenced . . . extremely desirable.” I have to admit, got me sort of excited; sounded like a good deal. The only home in Bend to sell for less than $400,000 in March. Why no interior photos?

Maybe something was up. The home remained on the market for 48 days (unheard of in this market at this price point!) before going pending. It finally closed at $12,000 below list price (at a robust $354 per foot).

Digging deeper, this 3/1, 1092 square foot home did offer an almost comical and rather blunt assessment buried in the private  remarks of MLS–“Please be advised, house DOES NOT show well, tenant has been there a VERY long time!” I was tempted to call to find out just how long. But more about that later.

Moving Along . . . What’s Ahead?

Looks like we’re in for more of the same. Interesting national statistics show that currently 43% of Buyers are millennials, 42% of Sellers are baby boomers.

There’s the reality that a continued rise in interest rates will most likely pull some buyers to the sidelines (first time buyers especially?). And, even though prices are not going down immediately, hopefully we’ll be entering a time in Bend where homes are not going for $75,000 to $100,000 over list price.